The question of who will succeed President Kagame—and when—will be a source of uncertainty and possible contention. The RPF's power, decisionmaking, public relations strategy, and legitimacy rest overwhelmingly with Kagame, and his departure would dramatically change how the regime is perceived. The elections in 2017 could be a moment for a significant political break. Kagame is constitutionally prohibited from running for a third term, although given the RPF's control over the legislature and the legislature's deference to him, a term extension is very plausible.
Constitutional changes of this kind are becoming less and less acceptable to African regional bodies and the international community. Forcing through such a change in Rwanda in 2017 could provoke a more sustained campaign by opposition leaders, particularly if backed by diplomatic support from African regional bodies or the international community.
If Kagame were to step down, it is today hard to imagine that the RPF would countenance any election process that might entail their defeat. Opposition parties in the diaspora appear to be building toward a unified cross-ethnic platform, and by 2017 may be adequately resourced and organized to present a real challenge in a free and fair election process. Rwanda's last two elections do not bode well for its next one.
There is some possibility—albeit slim—that President Kagame will be pushed out of office by elements within the RPF. That some of his most senior confidants have defected in recent years underscores this possibility—some of these former commanders may still enjoy the allegiance of a segment of the RPF or the military forces. Kagame is surely attuned to this possibility, and he has replaced these senior leaders with a younger set of loyal- ists without popular constituencies or alliances of their own, who are entirely beholden to him.
Rwanda's last two elections do not bode well for its next one.
On Jun 6, 2015, at 3:21 AM, bmuligande@yahoo.com [Democracy_Human_Rights] <Democracy_Human_Rights@yahoogroupes.fr> wrote:
Ibi ntibyigeze bibaho mu rwanda, ntibizanashoboka mpaka Yesu agarutse! Abo banyapolitique se bacahe za TL, na Blindes, indege za Kagame? Akaboko kafatishije ingoma imbunda ukayam buza iki? Amagambo? Mbwira!...
Sent from my BlackBerry®From: "Jean Gatera jeangatera@yahoo.be [Democracy_Human_Rights]" <Democracy_Human_Rights@yahoogroupes.fr>Date: Fri, 5 Jun 2015 22:38:46 +0000 (UTC)Subject: Re: RE : *DHR* KURWANYA KAGAME NK'UMUNTU NI UGUKURIKIRA BARINGA ZA FPR-INKOTANYI.Innocent Twagiramungu ati : "Muri iki gihe, hakenewe abanyepolitiki b'abatutsi n'abahutu babasha kutwereka gahunda ( projet de société ) amoko yose yo mu Rwanda yakwibonamo kandi akumva ahagarariwe bihagije cyane cyane mu gisoda, mu gipolisi, mu iperereza no mu myanya imwe n'imwe ya politiki. Nihataboneka abantapolitiki b'abatutsi n'abahutu bumva bashyira hamwe ngo baduhe gahunda nk'iyo bizatugora kubaka igihugu dusangiye twese nta mususu ( Etat nation)"Ibi nanjye ndabyemera
De : "itwagira71 itwagira71@gmail.com [Democracy_Human_Rights]" <Democracy_Human_Rights@yahoogroupes.fr>
À : "Democracy_Human_Rights@yahoogroupes.fr" <Democracy_Human_Rights@yahoogroupes.fr>
Envoyé le : Vendredi 5 juin 2015 20h53
Objet : RE : *DHR* KURWANYA KAGAME NK'UMUNTU NI UGUKURIKIRA BARINGA ZA FPR-INKOTANYI.
Posted by: Nzinink <nzinink@yahoo.com>
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-Ce dont jai le plus peur, cest des gens qui croient que, du jour au lendemain, on peut prendre une société, lui tordre le cou et en faire une autre.
- The hate of men will pass, and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish.
- I have loved justice and hated iniquity: therefore I die in exile.
- The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
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