East Africa Rwanda Presence Country Food Security Outlook
Stressed food security outcomes observed during the peak of lean season
April 2014 to September 2014
The Eastern Congo-Nile Highland Subsistance Farming and the Eastern
Semi Arid and Eastern Agro-pastoral zones depleted their food stocks
one month earlier than normal due to around 50 percent below-average
season A harvests for maize and beans in January/February. In order to
cope, poor households in these areas will engage in irreversible
coping strategies and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity
until the next harvests in June, when household will be in Minimal
food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) through September.
The long rainy (March-April-May) season started normally in early
March, but poorly-distributed seasonal rainfall since mid-March has
led to deteriorating ground conditions in southern and eastern parts
of the country, threatening crop development. Normal Season B harvests
in June/July are expected to replenish household food stocks across
Rwanda, but areas of concern with proneness to dryspell and flooding
should continue to be monitored closely.
Food prices are atypically high during the current lean season, up 30
to 60 percent against the two-year average. This is due to a lack of
carryover stock from the below-average Season A harvest. Prices are
expected to continue to increase until the arrival of the harvest in
June. However, poor households in most areas are still accessing food
through normal livelihood strategies and are facing Minimal/None (IPC
Phase 1) food insecurity.
National overview
Current Situation

Figure 1. Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for the Horn of Africa, March to May 2014
Source: ICPAC, GHACOF 36
Seasonal calendar in a typical year
Household food stocks: Poor households across the country experienced
below-normal Season A harvests during December to February, which did
not replenish food stocks to normal levels. Eastern Congo-Nile
Highland Subsistance Farming Zone, as well as the Eastern Semi-Arid
Agro-Pastoral zone, were hit by crop disease (maize caterpillar) and
poor rainfall conditions last season, which caused crop damage and
resulted in 50 percent deficits compared to the five-year average.
Households in the affected areas depleted their food stocks by early
March, which is one month earlier than normal. Poor households outside
the areas of concern are currently employing typical coping strategies
such as petty trade, switching for less preferred foods, and casual
labor. In areas of concern where food consumption and non-food
expenditure has decreased households are employing atyipical coping
strategies of high animal sales and labor migration to obtain food and
income.
Progress of agricultural season B: Season B activities are underway
across the country due to the timely onset of the long rainy season in
late-February. Near-normal rainfall distribution was received in
March, followed by reduced rainfall since early April. As seasonal
rains have normalized in the third dekad (10-day period) of April, the
increase in moisture is likely to positively impact crop development
across livelihood zones. Cassava mosaic in the East Congo Nile
Highland Subsiste Farming zone is threating production of cassava.
Othe sources of income: Nevertheless, the ongoing agricultural season
is providing on-farm labor opportunities for weeding in highland areas
and planting sweet potatoes in marshland areas and cassava in the
hillsides. Agricultural labor wages of 500 RwF/day are 30 percent
lower they were during same time last year due to relatively high
supply of labor from assetless reintegrated returnees from Tanzania
into the communities, and to some extent refugees from the camps.
Moreover, during this time of the year many people seek labor
opportunities to help pay for school fees that are due after the
Easter holidays. Poor households can also generate income from petty
trade and government safety nets providing labor work relating to
Vision 2020 Umurenge, where wage rates are considerably good at
between 1,500 and 2,000 RwF/day.
Markets and prices: Bean and Irish potato prices are 30-48 percent
above the two-year average during the lean season, due to low market
supply following the poor Season A harvest (the reference markets are
Birambo in East Congo Nile Higland Farming Zone and Nyakarambi for
Eastern Semi-Arid Agro-Pastoral Zone, and current prices are for
March). Maize prices have decreased since last month, as supply from
Season 'A' harvests arrives later than other crops.
Livestock conditions: Current rains have replenished pasture and water
availability for livestock across the country, contributing to good
livestock body conditions. Due to improved pastures, milk production
has increased seasonally in April and prices are seasonally normal for
milk during the peak of the lean season. However, high supply of
animals to markets during April to May, as households raise cash for
market purchases and school fees, may seasonally reduce livestock
prices.
Assumptions
The most-likely scenario for April through September 2014 is based on
the following national‐level assumptions:
Rainfall: Seasonal weather forecasts for March- April-May issued by
Inter-Governmental Authority for Development Climate Prediction and
Application Centre, and customized for Rwanda conditions, are
predicting normal to above-normal rainfall across the country (Figure
1).
Agricultural labor: Between April and May, there will be atypically
high agricultural labor supply associated with migration to raise
income for household food and non-food expenditure. Wage rates will be
below average compared to the same time last year. Wages rates will
peak again during the harvest in June/July and with land preparation
activities in August/September.
Food stocks: Low carryover household food stocks from Season A is
forcing households to rely entirely on market purchases to meet their
food needs until June, when the new harvest will be ready. This
harvest will then replenish food stocks and enable households to
consume own crop production normally through September.
Price of staple commodities: Due to below-average supply of key staple
foods as a result of poor Season A performance, prices of beans,
maize, cooking banana, and Irish potato will continue to increase at a
faster rate than is seasonally normal until the next harvest in
June/July. Prices are expected to decline in June until August
following the Season B harvest, though prices will remain moderately
above previous year and two-year averages throughout the scenario
period. However, maize and bean imports from Tanzania to Rwanda are
expected to increase further due to sufficient supply, the imminent
start of the May to August (Msimu) harvest in the main producing
southern highlands, competitive export parity prices, and high demand
in Rwanda following below-average December 2013 to January 2014
production.
Cross-border trade: Maize grain and bean exports from Tanzania to
Rwanda are expected to increase further due to higher-than-normal
supply, the imminent start of the May-to-August (Msimu) harvest in the
main producing southern highlands, competitive export parity prices,
and high demand in Rwanda following below-average Season A 2014
production (50 percent below average). Supplies from Uganda to Rwanda
are also expected to increase further since exports to South Sudan are
expected to be atypically low.
Increases in supplies of maize grain, dry beans and rice from both
Uganda and Tanzania are expected to moderate increases in prices (but
will not significantly curve the trend downwards) in northeastern and
eastern Rwanda.
Season 'B' harvest: Harvests in June will be near average due to
expected near-normal rainfall levels.
Livestock conditions: Pasture and livestock conditions will be normal
from now through June due to the ongoing rainy season, but are
expected to deteriorate normally during the dry season from July
through September and then improve as the rains start in second week
of September.
Livestock prices: Livestock prices will remain slightly below average
until June due to above-average supply as households raise income for
food purchases and pay for childrens' school fees during end of April.
Off-farm income activities: These activities will increase with labor
migration mostly from western parts of the country to Kigali, where
construction labor is widely available.
Refugees and returnees: Due to continued civil insecurity, refugee
inflows from the DRC will continue at current levels (approx. 2,600
persons per month). According to UNHCR-Rwanda, this will cause the
total refugee population to reach a record 91,000 people this year.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
From April until the early green harvests in May, most poor households
throughout the country will rely on market purchases to meet
consumption needs. Average labor and livestock incomes, above-normal
food prices, and access to off-farm labor will enable most households
to meet their food and non-food needs normally until June. For some
households, market purchases will also be supplemented by milk from
their own livestock herds and their own production of perennial crops,
such as bananas and cassava. Due to a normal harvest in June that will
replenish household food stocks, households will rely on their own
crop production, as usual, between June and September. In most areas
of the country, households will be at Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) food
insecurity during the entire outlook period. However, Stressed (IPC
Phase 2) outcomes will be observed between April and May in certain
areas of concern (the Eastern Congo-Nile Highland subsistence farming
zones, and the Eastern Semi Arid Agro-pastoral zones) because of
reduced food consumption patterns and atypical engagement in
irreversible coping strategies, like increased sales of animals and
elevated labor migration.
Areas of concern
ern semi-arid agro-pastoral zone

Figure 2. Bean Prices at Nyakarambi Market, RWF/kg
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 3. Banana Prices at Nyakarambi market, monthly average, RWF/kg
Source: FEWS NET

Figure 4. Cassava Flour Prices at Birambo Market, monthly average, RWF/kg
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 5. Bean Prices at Birambo Market, monthly average, RWF/kg
Current Situation
The Eastern Semi-Arid and Eastern Agro-pastoral zone was hit by a dry
spell during cropping season 'A', which caused 50 percent
below-average maize and bean harvests in December/January. As a
result, household food stocks in this zone depleted approximately one
month earlier than normal at the end of February, compared to the end
of March in a normal year. Households in this zone are currently
dependent on the market to meet food needs. Cropping season 'B' is
progressing across the livelihood zone, with crops already at the
flowering stage and weeding providing on-farm labor for the poor. Crop
conditions are progressing well following normal rains.
Weeding is the main labor opportunity available at this time of the
year, so it cannot sufficiently provide for the high supply of labor
which is exacerbated by the labor migrants from the West of the
country to the East. This has reduced wages rates to 500 RWF/day, 35
percent below the situation of last two months and 20 percent below
last year's level. People in this zone also receive income from Vision
2020 Umurenge, a government program to support the most vulnerable
households that pays 1500 RWF/day. Another source of income is the
Land Husbandry, Water Harvesting and Hillside (LWH) Irrigation project
in Nyagatare, Kayonza and Gatsibo and Dams construction in Kirehe
districts, where poor people are employed in terrace construction and
paid 1500 RWF/person/day.
Following the 50 percent below-average Season A harvest in this zone,
low market supply has triggered food price increases by 25 percent,
61.5 percent and 12 percent respectively for beans, cooking banana,
cassava flour at Nyakarambi market, compared to previous month
(February) prices. Prices for these commodities are also up 53, 183
and 29 percent respectively compared to last year's levels.
Households are meeting their food consumption through atypical coping
strategies, such as engaging in typical on-farm labor migration and
above-normal sale of animals to two to three goats/pigs compared to
the typical one per season. Animal body conditions are better and milk
availability is good. However, the high sale of livestock as a coping
strategy to reduce food gaps also lowers the price compared to normal
levels.
Assumptions
The most-likely scenario for April through September 2014 for the
Eastern Semi-Arid Agro-pastoral zone is based on the following
zone-level assumptions:
Household food stocks: From April to May, households will meet their
consumption needs through market purchases until the next harvests in
June. This harvest is expected to be near normal and will replenish
household food stocks until August. Households will then rely on the
market again for food in September, as is typical for this time of the
year.
Prices: Prices beans, cooking banana, and Irish potatoes are expected
to increase sharply during peak of lean season (April/May) due to
reduced market supply. Starting in the end of May, green consumption
from the Season B harvests will ease market demand and will cause
prices to decline. Due to fresh harvests in June, food prices will
decline in June and stay relatively stable, but moderately above last
year between July and August until household food stocks begin to
deplete again in early September.
Labor opportunities: Weeding activities generally require less labor
than other agricultural activities, such as harvesting, so labor
demand will be seasonally low until June. Above-normal labor supply as
households try to offset the effects of last season's poor harvests.
Labor opportunities will then increase seasonally in June as the
harvest begins in June and land preparation begins in August. Wages
will be normal between June and September.
Migration: Migration will peak seasonally in April-May during the lean
season. Household members who have migrated to other zones, such as
Southeastern Plateau Banana zone, will return in late June when green
harvests are available.
Livestock: Despite normal body conditions, livestock prices will
remain below average between April and May as households sell
atypically high levels of livestock during the lean season. Once
harvests begin in June, livestock supply will decline back to normal
levels and prices are expected to be similar to an average year
between June and September.
Cross-border trade: Imports of staple food commodities from Tanzania
and Uganda will not significantly change food prices in this
livelihood zone, as most of them will be directed towards Kigali City.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
Due to below-average Season 'A' 2014 harvests, household food stocks
depleted one month earlier than normal this year and households are
currently relying on market purchases to access food. Atypically high
food prices have caused households to currently have difficulties
meeting basic food needs without employing irreversible coping
strategies, such as above normal sales of animals and increased labor
migration. Poor households in this zone are therefore classified as
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and then next harvests in June.
Due to expected average Season B harvests, household food stocks are
expected to be replenished to normal levels in June. These normal
harvests, along with normal cash incomes from agricultural labor
activities, livestock sales, and milk sales will enable households to
access food normally and be at Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) food
insecurity between June and September.
Eastern Congo-Nile Highland Subsistence Farming Zone
Current Situation
This zone is characterized by steeply-sloped mountains with degraded
lands, low fertility, and old soils that are vulnerable to erosion.
Cash crops, food crops, livestock and casual labor are the main
livelihood activities in this zone.
In the East Congo-Nile Highland Subsistance Farming Zone, Season A
harvests of beans and maize were 50 percent below average due to crop
diseases and soil erosion as a result of heavy rains, and crop
diseases. In addition, flooding and landslides damaged crops to worsen
the seasonal production performance. The government-run terracing
activities in the zone also reduced the quantity of land that was put
under cultivation, further contributing to last season's below-average
harvests. As a result, household food stocks in this zone depleted one
month earlier than normal (in early March compared to the early April
in a normal year) and households are currently relying on market
purchases to access food.
Similar to the rest of the country, the long rainy season is currently
underway in this zone with normal cumulative rainfall levels and no
major hazard resulting in crop losses have been reported.
Poor households' dependence entirely on market purchases during April
and May in this zone has increased market demand and has exacerbated
already above-normal food prices. Current food prices (March) are
higher compared to the previous month by 6 percent, 61 percent, 28
percent and 18 percent for beans, cooking bananas, Irish potato and
cassava flour, respectively, at Birambo market.
Currently, high labor migration to the Eastern part of the country has
been observed for households seeking off-farm and on-farm labor
opportunities. The rate at which they migrate is above normal
according to reports from area of destination (Nyagatare and Gatsibo
districts). Planting activities have ended and land husbandry
activities for the poor are completed in Karongi, Nyanza, Huye and
Ngororero. The households normally access labor in tea and or coffee
plantations where they are employed and paid monthly. This income
source however, does not reach many poor households since the number
of people seeking this employment is above average.
The zone is home to about 67,212 refugees from DRC. These refugees
have put additional pressure on this zone as they compete with the
local community for labor work, such as at local tea plantations,
increasing supply and causing wages to fall. For example, in these
areas, the current wage is 500 RWF/day, which compares to 700 RWF/day
during a normal year at this time. Refugees are also present at local
markets, such as Birambo market in the Karongi district and Kabacuzi
market in the Nyamagabe district, selling items such as food, oil,
blanket, etc. to earn cash to purchase substitute foods and clothing.
Another camp was established in Mugombwa Sector of Gisagara District
to host refugees from Nkamira Transit Camp, this has increased market
demand of certain market items and driving prices upward.
Assumptions
The most-likely scenario for April through September 2014 for the East
Congo-Nile Highland farming zone is based on the following zone-level
assumptions:
Food sources: Households have currently depleted their own food stocks
one month earlier than normal and will rely on market purchases until
the June harvests. After these harvests, households will depend on
their own production through September 2014.
Prices: Staple commodity prices will remain above normal throughout
the first half of the outlook period and will be stable, but
moderately above last year's post-June harvests. This means that until
the first harvests in June, prices will be unseasonally high due to
low market supply during the lean season. Prices will then decline
slightly in July through August, before increasing again in September
when market demand from households increases.
Livestock: Livestock prices will behave normally during the scenario
period. Improved pasture availability during the rainy season between
April and June will continuously improve body conditions and milk
availability until August.
Labor opportunities: Labor availability will increase during the June
to July period as harvesting and land preparation for August begins.
Labor opportunities from tea plantations are expected to remain stable
throughout the outlook period.
Remittances: Remittances are expected to remain stable during the
scenario period.
Cross-border trade: Imports of staple food commodities from Tanzania
and Uganda will not significantly impact food prices in this
livelihood zone, as most imports will be destined for towards Kigali
City.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
Households in this zone will entirely rely on market purchases to meet
their basic food needs until June, due to the continuing impacts of
Season A's 50 percent below-average. From June until August,
households will consume their own-produced foods. In addition,
above-average labor availability has caused wages in the zone to
decline and reduce their purchasing power. To cope, households will
employ consumption-based coping strategies, including skipping meals,
engage in reduced non-food expenditure and using irreversible coping
strategies, like higher-than-normal labor migration and will be in
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Once the harvests start
in June, households will rely on their own crop production, including
beans, banana plantains, peas, sweet potatoes, and fresh and dry
cassava, and will be able to meet both essential food and non-food
needs without engaging in any atypical coping strategies. Therefore,
between June and September, households will face minimal to no food
insecurity (IPC Phase 1).
Events that might change the outlook
Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change
the most-likely scenario.
Area
Event
Impact on food security outcomes
National
Food stocks in Tanzania are not as good as we assume.
There will be insufficient supply from Tanzania to the Rwanda market
and therefore prices will remain high and erode the purchasing power
of the buyers
A change in the political situation in the DRC allows refugees in
Rwanda to return home
The return of refugees to the DRC would reduce labor competition and
cause wages to return to normal levels.
Eastern Congo Nile Highlands subsistence farming zone
Refugee influx from DRC is likely to happen due to planned MONUSCO
disarmament of Rwandan FDRL rebels based in DRC
Increase labor supply, competition in available resources with host
population like markets.
About this report
To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET
develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and
the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those
assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods
to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically,
FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario.
The information provided on this Web site is not official U.S.
Government information and does not represent the views or positions
of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S.
Government.
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SIBOMANA Jean Bosco
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