It is almost a month since the murder of the former chief of external intelligence and —what is widely ignored—former army spokesman Patrick Karegeya in a hotel room in Johannesburg, South Africa.
With his burial, and passage of time, I had thought this elimination of one of the most vocal opposition politicians would vanish from international news. Not so, it turns out.
Karegeya has been described in many ways by different people who fall on the different sides of the highly charged and polarised political climate that this country has become.
After a brief loud silence, the top diplomat in Kigali, Louise Mushikiwabo, came out on Twitter, to comment on the murder.
Her comments, for some observers, were unique by their tone of "callousness to the young children of the deceased."
For many, they would have been fair game comments in such a bloody contest of former allies had they been directed at her opposite officials in the political opposition. Indeed, many were initially dumbfounded by the lack of diplomatic finesse coming out of Kigali officials.
The Prime Minister, and most especially, the Defence Minister, Gen James Kabarebe, a long-time aide of President Paul Kagame and apparently also a longtime associate of Karegeya and Kayumba Nyamwasa, seems to have shocked and surprised many.
For those who thought that these officials were just being over enthusiastic spokesmen of the ruling establishment, it became apparent that, that was probably the official position of Kigali when the president spoke at a prayer breakfast meeting.
Speaking to an audience of Kigali's who-is- who, the president made it clear how he was "unapologetic" in regard to what befalls those considered enemies of the state.
Attempts to draw comparisons with other global powers in their war on terror, seem to have not cut it with the wider "chattering class" that is outside the Kigali sphere of influence.
The murder of Karegeya and the way Kigali has tried to frame the whole issue, and how it has been received by the rest of the world, seems to be having far reaching consequences.
The comments of the US State Department spokesman seem to reflect the widely held view of the international community in regard to Rwanda's government.
Whereas Kigali has over the years distanced itself from any political assassinations that have been levelled against it, it seems that other centres of power are not convinced.
But why is it that the US State Department, and other global political players are seemingly sending messages of disapproval to Kigali, when it is widely acknowledged that states, many allied to the US, routinely eliminate political dissidents, without anyone raising a voice?
Yet, with official investigations yet to determine the perpetrators of this crime, some global powers are already giving warnings to Kigali, however feeble they may be.
Going forward, can we, without fear of contradiction, assume that the murder of Karegeya is going to be a watershed moment in the political fortunes of his former allies in Kigali? Can we also assume that, given the unrelenting international media coverage of the issue, that this is a pointer of things to come?
We are now seeing that unlike in the recent past, many no longer share the notion that the Kigali leadership has a moral reason to lead. This moral high ground that emanated from the heroic defeat of the 1994 Genocide forces, is now under scrutiny by different actors.
As has been argued before in this column, that foreign powers have a bearing in what happens in Rwanda and most of Africa. Kigali remains publically defiant and dismissive of foreign powers, but is privately understood to lobby and leverage things like participating in peacekeeping missions to remain relevant in the international scheme of things.
If Kigali weathers the current diplomatic storm, what does the future portend for this ruling establishment that has radically impacted the political and social landscape of this country?
Ours are fragile states, and as long as state institutions are fragile, the security and peace of the region will be as fragile. It is not likely that there is going to be peace and stability when our leaders are still posturing as warriors.
Frank Kagabo is an Erasmus Mundus graduate student of journalism, media and globalisation at Aarhus University, Denmark, and Swansea University, the UK, specialising in war and conflict reporting. E-mail: frank2kagabo@yahoo.com; Twitter: @kagabo
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