Rwandan elections: Safe and sorry
MANY things were in doubt when Rwanda held parliamentary elections on September 16th, but not the outcome. Paul Kagame, the president, said before votes were counted that he had "no reason to believe" in anything but overwhelming victory. His Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) won with 76%.
In theory the party, which has ruled the hilly nation since taking power in 1994, was vying with nine others. In reality Rwanda's nearly 6m voters had little or no choice. Four parties are in open coalition with the RPF. Most of the rest are led by loyal cabinet ministers. One opposition party, PS Imberakuri, has been infiltrated by supporters of the president; its leader, Bernard Ntaganda, was imprisoned for "divisionism". The party now has two factions, but only the pro-government one was allowed to contest the poll.
The RPF would be likely to win an overwhelming majority even if it allowed genuine opposition, but it is not minded to take chances. The party grew out of a guerrilla army, led by ethnic Tutsis, that toppled the previous Hutu-led regime. Its command structure still resembles a military force with a hierarchy that prizes discipline and unity above all else. Throughout the country's economic recovery from civil war and genocide, the RPF has maintained that it still faces a threat from former Hutu foes, some of whom linger across the border in Congo. Officials point to two recent grenade attacks in the capital.
Political opposition has been allowed only where it does not question the RPF's role as the country's saviour. Victoire Ingabire, the last important politician to challenge this view, sought to unseat Mr Kagame at the last election and ended up in prison, accused of links to a Hutu rebel group led by suspected mass killers.
Even the Green Party, which has no ambitions to revise the official history, was prevented from registering until shortly before the electoral deadline in August. Its leader, Frank Habineza, whose deputy was murdered before the presidential poll in 2010, then opted not to put up candidates. (The murder remains unsolved.)
For Mr Kagame, an appearance of democracy has been essential to reassure investors and Western donors who might otherwise be accused of bankrolling a dictator. This worked well enough until last year, when Rwanda's murky involvement in eastern Congo's continuing civil war finally earned it a rebuke from the UN. Mr Kagame has denied co-operating with Congolese rebels and called on the UN to pacify the region.
Rwanda's once-warm relations with Western donors have soured. Technocrats like the finance minister, Claver Gatete, say they felt betrayed when aid was suspended to punish Rwanda over its foreign entanglements, regardless of its progress in reducing poverty.
The RPF sought to exploit these tensions in the campaign, calling for more self-reliance. Tens of thousands of supporters were told the country must ween itself off Western aid. Foreign aid has decreased slightly, from about 40% of government spending to 38%. Loans from China have made up the shortfall; Mr Kagame likes the Chinese model. The new parliament is expected to change the constitution to allow the president to run for a third term. His party has few other potential leaders: most of Mr Kagame's rivals have died, been jailed or fled the country.
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